Super Tuesday: Blogosphere Predicts McCain & Obama as Winners

We chose five different Super Tuesday states to gauge-California, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, and Missouri. For these states, we used the methodology of combining activity and sentiment of state and national blogs.

We also made an overall prediction using a similar, but untested, method. We measured the sentiment and activity for national blogs. The candidate's name had to be mentioned within a certain number of words of any one of the Super Tuesday states. The search parameters were necessarily looser than with individual states, but we're hypothesizing that the "collective intellect" will outweigh any small inconsistencies.

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With the exception of California and Georgia, it appears to be a tight race. Massachusetts, Missouri, and Colorado are all separated by a mere 2 percentage points, which we would have to consider too close to call.

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For a full report on these predictions, detailed analysis and projections for the GOP races for the five states, and a three-month candidate sentiment report jointly researched with Marketing Pilgrim, please download this free pdf file.