As part of my ongoing analysis of the Oil & Gas sector for Collective Intellect’s customers, I’ve noticed Alberta’s oil sands are getting hammered from every direction. First, the Albertan Premier announced the New Royalty Framework which includes an increase in the taxation of oil sands.
Five days later a Guardian article revealed the inhumane conditions at Fort McMurray making it a popular topic of conversation in the blogosphere. On that same day, to add insult to injury, advancements in the United State’s plan to curb global warming gas emissions listed oil sands as a main target:

“Pumphrey said there are more than a half-dozen bills before Congress that would introduce a national system to cap greenhouse gas emissions and establish a market for emissions credits. Several of those bills would ‘penalize’ energy sources like Alberta’s oil sands, which produce far more carbon dioxide emissions than conventional, lighter crude, he said.” -From
Price of Oil

I examined the sentiment and activity around these events. It appears that news of the Alberta tax hike caused the largest spike in activity, news and message board traffic, seen on 10/25 and 10/26.

The Guardian article and the development of a US assault against global warming may not have produced as much overall activity, but did create a spike in blog posts and negative sentiment on 10/30.

This leads me to believe that the increase in taxation - however important to officials, investors and companies dealing directly in the oil sands industry - will not effect oil sands operations as much as the developments on 10/30. It is the only day to scale where negative sentiment is greater than positive and includes by far the most blog activity.

Either way, it’s been a tough week for Alberta oil sands.

Tags: Analyzing Consumer Generated Media, Social Media Analytics //