January 22nd, 2007
In our work for institutional investors and traders, we filter and track information relevant to stocks or sectors, sometimes significantly before the information makes it into a traditional news media outlet. But, like anything, not all information is good information, and some of those posts don’t cause stock movement or predict stock movement, some only cause minor changes or are part of an overall pattern that causes movement.
However, we regularly find blog or message board posts or other online conversations that suggest a potential price movement for a stock. This data are based on credible opinions of the blogger, or some kind of company or product information that just hasn’t circulated into the general consciousness. (Of course, some of the information we surface also doesn’t pan out.)
The posts below were picked up by our New Media Intelligence Service long before they appeared in traditional media outlets, and long before they would have surfaced by running a Google or Technorati search.
Here are the top three stock-moving New Media scoops found here at Collective Intellect in the 4th quarter of 2006:
1.Taser secures contract with French government to beat Street estimates
Post found by Collective Intellect Aug 8th
Stock price: $7.07
News breaks in Forbes Oct 5th
Stock price: $8.54
On August 8th, we uncovered a French blogger discussing Taser, the US manufacturer of stun-guns. The French Ministry of the Interior had apparently been investigating purchasing stun-guns for the French police forces and gendarmerie. The translation of the post found by our algorithms: “Presented at the ministry for the Interior as the weapon “antibavure” par excellence, it was the subject since April 24 last of an invitation to tender relating to 5,000 specimens for the police force and the gendarmerie. The contract should be awarded to the American manufacturer Taser for his model X26…”
The story was finally picked up in Forbes on October 5th, based on a report directly from Taser: “The stun-gun manufacturer said its 3Q profit should beat the Street’s forecast after receiving orders from the French Ministry of Interior.”
When Taser released their quarterly earnings on November 8th, 2006, they highlighted that 12% of their revenue for the quarter was from this international deal with the French Interior Ministry. Also, the French Ministry has only purchased 40% of the contract options for total number of units, portending to a higher value of this deal then closed in the previous quarter.
2. Boeing capitalizes on Airbus delays
Posts found by Collective Intellect
Oct 25th — Stock price: $80.57
Oct 26th — Stock price: $78.86
Oct 31st — Stock price: $79.58
News breaks on Reuters Nov 7th
Stock price: $84.55
On Oct 25th, Collective Intellect uncovered the first of three New Media scoops discussing Boeing’s ability to step in as Airbus hit delays and problems with its Airbus 380 super-jumbo jet. Over the next few days, we found additional posts that supported the position that investors were not considering Airbus’ failures when projecting Boeing’s future earnings. In fact, Boeing’s stock continued to drop until news broke on CNN Money, when it rose $4.97per share.
Oct 25th blog post: “Boeing looking to capitalize on Airbus’ delays.”
Oct 26th blog post: “Boeing is flogging Airbus, and that is likely to continue with the success of Boeing’s Dreamliner and the delays in the Airbus 380 super-jumbo.”
Oct 30st blog post: “24/7 Wall St. argues that investors haven’t figured Airbus’ losses into Beoing’s future earnings.”
Nov 7th new report on Reuters: “FedEx cancels Airbus A380 order, switches to Boeing…”
3. AMD CPU shortages cause big stock price drop
Post found by Collective Intellect Oct 12th
Stock price: $24.69
News breaks in Forbes Oct 19th
Stock price: $21.01
On October 12, Collective Intellect picked up a blog post discussing reports about shortages of AMD CPUs: “AMD HAS TO SUPPLY millions of its products to Dell, as it was written (probably in blood) in that AMD-Dell contract signed in Mikey Dell’s house a while ago. However, it seems that channel is getting the wrong end of the stick, since we are hearing reports about shortages of AMD CPUs.”
Not until October 19th did Bloomberg get word of AMD’s inability to meet demand. “Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. plunged as much as 12 percent…Advanced Micro wasn’t able to meet demand because of supply issues caused by a transition to new memory technology in its processors…”
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